Floyd's Column - Fresh eyes on Derby stats

You think you’ll remember what happened.

What did you learn that might come in useful this time around? 

Were there any clues in the betting, seeding or results? 

Before last week’s Derby first round, and that set of results, who hasn’t tried to detect or remember a pattern or trend to help predict how the competition will end?  

Looking back, I remember so little of how last year’s Derby all panned out. 

That isn’t through lack or attention or engagement at the time. If anything, it was the opposite. 

I remember that De Lahdedah was a good winner. That was great to see, the Dowling family had tried so hard over the years and were long overdue one. 

That King Memphis was the beaten favourite which was sad for a British bred pup that I had followed closely since his first handslip.  

That Churchfield Syd made the final. . but then he always makes the final. What a lovely hound. 

I remembered that one of Paul Hennessy’s strong finishers was runner-up. But which one? There have been so many? Mcneil? Hello Hammond? No, that was two years earlier. It was Boylesports Bob last year. 

Had completely forgotten that Whyaye Man made the final. A Wallis runner punching above its weight. Nothing new there. 

And who the hell is Sunnyside Broxi? 

I do have a good excuse there. He was Ballymac Gizmo at the time. That’s right, Liam had two in the final. 

If all of this sounds like an old bloke on the verge of dementia, you could be right. 

In my defence, I remember eight weeks of pre competition preparation, study, and more study throughout, it was definitely a case of ‘information overload’ leading to brain fry. 

So, I decided to go back with fresh eyes and recall all that happened a year ago. 

When they went to traps on Thursday, May 23, 2024, it was King Memphis who headed the ante post betting at 16/1 followed by Queen Joni at 20/1, De Lahdedah and Bens Teddy were both on the 25/1 mark. 

By the end of that first meeting of the 2024 Star Sports/TRC English Derby, not only would you have seen the ultimate winner of the competition, you just might have picked him.  

De Lahdedah was the quickest winner on the night (28.78) with Boylesports Bob next best at 28.87. 

In fact, four of the eventual six finalists ran in those first set of ten heats with Churchfied Syd only just surviving when beaten 11 lengths into third behind De Lahdedah with Whyaye Man second to Unreal Bruiser (28.91). 

But just 24 hours later, your confidence in the Dowling winner might have been tested. The Derby favourite King Memphis equalled the track record with a 28.58 run off a 4.03 sectional. The closest winning time to that was Antigua Hawk’s 28.81. 

If you were looking for a potential champ on the Saturday night, Barntick Bear (28.68) would have topped your list when beating Ballymac Gizmo (Sunnyside Broxi) by five and a half lengths, with another tick next to Glengar Martha (28.75). 

But this is dog racing and there will be turn-ups. 

Immediately - two of the top four principles were gone with the elimination at 8/13f of Queen Joni and a career ending injury for Bens Teddy. 

What else did we learn?  

That the Irish were powerful. They had a strike rate of a winner in every three runners and picked off 15 of the 31 heats. 

That a similar number of heat wins went to the outright favourite with one joint favourite. That 16 of the 31 winners had led at the sectional. 

As for traps, there were 30 runners from trap one, but only three winners (identical to T5). Yet there were six winners from a mere 23 wide seeds. 

Trap three was the most prolific with eight wins. 

Going into the second round, things were starting to heat up.  

Ante-post leader King Memphis impressed on the Friday night with a 28.78 run, but he wasn’t going to have it all his own way. 

De Lahdedah was slightly back on his first round run (28.91) but generally the Irish dogs kicked on, notably: Gaytime Nemo (28.76), Longacres Gordon (28.71), and The Other Kobe (28.99). 

The Saturday night saw a new serious player on the scene with Crafty Shivoo going to within a spot of the clock. 

A Wallis double helped provide a more even international balance on the night with four winners from each side of the Irish Sea. 

Overall though, the Irish were extending their dominance. Of the 33 Irish runners who went to traps, 22 made it through to the next round. 

Nine of the 16 favourites obliged with just one winner from trap six but otherwise no obvious trap bias. 

Ten of the 16 races were won by the fastest (or joint) sectionalists. The sectionals were also getting quicker.  

In the first round, only Glengar Marthas broke 4.00. In the second round, five hounds broke the four second mark and all but one, won. 

The unfortunate hound was Churchfield Syd (3.99) who was beaten once again, though only by half a length, by De Lahdedah. 

So – 48 runners in the third round of which 22 were Irish. 

However, given the nature of trap draws, they weren’t evenly split. Some heats contained four and five Irish runners meaning there were going to be casualties, even within kennels. 

It is likely to happen again! 

So a heat won by Graham Holland’s The Other Kobe also saw the departure of kennelmate Clonbrien Treaty and the popular Singalong Dolly. 

There were five Irish runners in the fifth heat, three of which, including favourite Antigua Hawk, made their exit. 

The Derby favourite King Memphis (28.74) put in another solid performance though the outstanding heat saw a tremendous clash between Crafty Shivoo and the Irish pair De Lahdedah and Gaytime Nemo. 

They finished in that order. The MWD’s Shivoo led by a short head at the sectional (3.93) and by a head one lap later. The winning time was 28.62. 

Churchfield Syd finally kept his head in front but looked a long way from the final with a 29.19 run. All the other third round winners broke 29.00. 

Whyaye Man, Sunnyside Broxi and Boylesports Bob scraped through in third place in their respective heats. 

The near 50% success rate for favourites thus far was perfectly maintained with four of the eight winners. 

Four was the only barren trap with a couple of wins for T1 and T6. 

We were at the quarter final stage and everything was starting to fall into place. 

Wrong! 

But while King Memphis extended his unbeaten run with a 28.65 five length win over Whyaye Man, things started to go a bit Pete Tong from the get-go. 

Churchfield Syd, who couldn’t break 29.00, still couldn’t, but the 8/1 chance still managed to win a heat in 29.08 at the expense of the only other unbeaten runner, Gaytime Nemo. He took the third qualifying place with the outstanding Crafty Shivoo crashing out by a black head. 

The shocks kept coming. Irish Derby winner The Other Kobe (1/2f), who had won his previous heat in 28.77, was reeled in by 5/1 shot Salacres Slick in 29.12. 

Brave punters tried to claw back their winnings with De Lahdedah (8/13f), but he did well to qualify in a messy race where Cooliogold was KO’d and Boylesports Bob (11/4) demonstrated why he wasn’t still sitting in Paul Hennessy’s Gowran kennel. His winning time just three spots slower than the Derby favourite Memphis. 

So the track that supposedly favours the inside and middle runners saw one Derby quarter final winner in red, one in orange and two in stripes. 

Only two of the four winners broke 29.00, none of whom had cracked a 4.00 sectional. 

Form book in the bin! 

It had all seemed so easy, but by the semi-finals, punters were considering asking Paul The Octopus, famous for his football selections, to pick them a Derby winner. 

Some faith was restored in the first semi-final. The betting suggested an Irish clean sweep for the qualifying places and they would be proved two thirds right. 

De Lahdedah was installed as the 11/8f and duly put in a professional trap-to-line performance. In all honesty, he benefitted from a draw in red and although a head down at the sectional, was able to seize the rail from Gaytime Nemo (T3). 

The defending Derby champ still looked likely to qualify alongside the MWD’s 12/1 shot Whyaye Man. But it would be the strong finishing Boylesports Bob (2/1) who would nab the final place. The winner clocked 28.79. 

Any thoughts of retrieving the form book would have lasted 18 minutes! 

Could the unbeaten King Memphis (10/11f) see off the Irish Derby winner The Other Kobe (11/4)? 

Well . . . . yes and no. 

Graham Holland’s runner failed to make the cut, but Churchfield Syd hadn’t read the script. With Memphis and Kobe engaged in a first bend nudging match, Richard Rees’ Syd set off in front and then held off the favourite by a short head in 28.98. 

28.98 in a Derby semi final. How is that even possible? 

Two trap sixes through to the final. 

Seven nights later. . . . .well you know what happened. 

Churchfield Syd (T5) and Boylesports Bob (T6) were quickest away on the outside. 

Whyaye Man (T1) was the quickest away of the four on their inside with 11/8f King Memphis (T3) left stone cold in the boxes in the worst trapping exhibition of his career. 

It was left to De Lahdedah (T4) to set off after the leader and with a clear run, there was only going to be one result. 

De Lahdedah dutifully equalled the track record with Boylesports Bob running on gallantly in second beaten two and a half length. 

Given that Bob was subsequently marked ‘awkward’ in this year’s Easter Cup, there were at least no dramas on the night. 

Lessons learned? 

Early pace is nice, particularly in the early rounds, but not really essential. 

De Lahdedah only broke 4.00 once throughout the competition and was beaten. He was actually led up by both Churchfield Syd and Boylesports Bob. 

If there was a vote for the most popular box at Towcester it would be trap three, but in reality, it has no real advantage. 

Roughly half of all favourites wins – but there is no such thing as a certainty. 

But you already knew that. 

Paul The Octopus might still be your best bet.